January 2025 Market Trends Report
The U.S. labor market soared into the new year with surprisingly strong job growth.
Employers added 256,000 jobs in December (the greatest gain since March), and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary.
Average hourly pay rates also increased 3.9% year over year (retaining the same growth for the past three months).
By industry, hourly pay increases from December 2023 to December 2024 include:
- Manufacturing: +4.1%
- Construction: +4.4%
- Warehousing and transportation: 2.2%
- Leisure and hospitality: +3.9%
While the slight drop in joblessness in December is welcome, future fluctuations in unemployment will be a key factor in evaluating the strength of the market in 2025.
Jobs Market Overview: December 2024
4.1%
Overall unemployment rate
Unemployment edged down a percentage point since last month but is up 0.3% year over year.
256k
Jobs added
Last month’s job gains surpassed economists’ expectations, stepping into 2025 on a strong footing.
62.5%
Labor force participation rate
Labor force participation was unchanged month over month, remaining within its narrow range of 62.5%–62.7% since December 2023.
Industry Employment Trends
OVERALL ECONOMY
+256k
Monthly job change
(+2,232,000 year over year)
Industry | Monthly Job Change | YoY Difference |
Manufacturing | -13k | -87k |
Automotive | -4.1k | +6.5k |
Warehousing & Storage | +2.1k | +3.4k |
Architectural & Engineering | +7.4k | +55.3k |
Construction | +8k | +196k |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic News Release
Sector by Sector News: December 2024
Manufacturing Jobs Report
December Manufacturing PMI: 49.3%*
*A PMI reading below 50% suggests economic activity is contracting.
Manufacturing Monthly Employment Change: -13,000 jobs
In contrast to the positive momentum of the broader jobs market in December, the manufacturing industry lost 13,000 jobs month over month.
Most of its losses were in the durable goods sector, which declined by 16,000 jobs (shedding many of the 29,000 jobs employers added in November).
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI increased from 48.4% in November to 49.3%, yet it remains in contraction for the ninth consecutive month. (In 2024, March was the only month that experienced PMI growth.)
While demand and production levels improved, it likely reflects a seasonal uptick and not a stable growth indicator. Foundational industries within manufacturing show weakness, suggesting a full recovery is still a few months away.
Construction Storage Jobs Report
Construction Monthly Employment Change (Overall): +8,000 jobs
Throughout much of 2024, the construction industry outpaced the broader economy in job growth.
That growth significantly slackened in Q4, with employers adding only 15,000 jobs (including +8,000 in December), earning the slowest growth of any quarter since 2021.
Construction joblessness also rose from 4.6% to 5.2% month over month, steadily increasing from its annual low of 3.2% in August.
“The December jobs data bode well for the broader economy but poorly for the construction industry,” Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu said.
He added, “Contractors intend to increase their staffing levels in the coming months, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index.”
All construction sectors saw employment increases in December with a close split between nonresidential (+4,700 jobs) and residential employment (+4,000).
Given the slowing growth at the end of 2024, it will be interesting to see if hiring rates step up to meet contractors’ intentions in early 2025.
Warehousing & Storage Jobs Report
November Logistics Managers' Index (LMI): 57.3*
*A LMI above 50 indicates that logistics metrics are expanding.
Warehousing & Storage Monthly Employment Change: +2,100 jobs
According to the Institute for Supply Management, the logistics industry continued its steady growth in December, though slightly slower, with a Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) reading of 57.3 (down from 58.4 in November due to the seasonal decline in inventory levels).
Additionally, employment in Warehousing & Storage increased in December (+2,100 jobs) after a dip in October and November hiring.
This uptick reflects signs of optimism for growth in 2025 thanks to positive consumer sentiment and favorable dynamics in the broader U.S. economy.
Despite potential challenges like port strikes and rising warehousing costs, the market remains resilient, reflecting a healthy, organic recovery.
According to LMI:
Growth is increasing at an increasing rate for:
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Warehousing capacity
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Warehousing utilization
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Transportation capacity
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Transportation prices
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Inventory costs
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Warehousing prices
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Transportation utilization