October 2024 Market Trends Report
After two months of slowing job gains, September brought a reassuring report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — with 254,000 jobs added — and an unemployment rate that fell slightly to 4.1%.
July and August, which fueled concerns that “the labor market is on shaky ground”, were also revised up by 72,000 jobs (in contrast to last month, when prior months were revised down).
While this might not signal a complete reversal of a trend that has troubled some economists, September’s broad gains have at least eased concerns, pointing to a labor market that’s on firm footing at the beginning of Q4.
However, Economist Cory Stahle from Indeed Hiring reports: “The stability reflected in this report may not extend into next month, highlighting the month-month volatility this data often presents … The labor market’s ongoing rebalancing toward a soft landing remains fragile.”
He adds that this is especially true considering ongoing strikes and layoffs at Boeing and the offshoots of Hurricanes Helene and Milton we can expect to see hit future reports.
Jobs Market Overview: September 2024
4.1%
Overall unemployment rate
Unemployment has slowly increased throughout 2024, from 3.7% in January to 4.3% in July. The dip from 4.2% to 4.1% in September is a welcome contrast.
254k
Jobs added
September job gains were well above economists’ expectations, underpinning a strong BLS report and a labor market that seems to be on solid ground.
62.7%
Labor force participation rate
Labor force participation held its 62.7% rate for the third consecutive month.
Industry Employment Trends
OVERALL ECONOMY
+254k
Monthly job change
(+243.8k YOY difference)
| Industry | Monthly Job Change | YOY Difference |
| Manufacturing | -7k | -37k |
| Automotive | -6.5k | +9.8k |
| Warehousing & Storage | -11k | -21.7k |
| Architectural & Engineering | +0.9k | +40.9k |
| Construction | +25k | +238k |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic News Release
Sector by Sector News: September 2024
Manufacturing Jobs Report
September Manufacturing PMI: 47.2%*
September ISM Employment Index: 43.9%
*A PMI reading below 50% suggests economic activity is contracting.
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), economic activity in the manufacturing industry contracted for the 22nd time in the last 23 months, registering 42.7% in September — the same rate as August.
Hiring within the industry reflects this contraction, with 7,000 payrolls losses. Registering 43.9% on ISM’s Employment Index (down 2.1 percentage points from August), September’s report shows an accelerating trend of slowing job growth throughout the year.
The month-over-month dip in ISM’s Employment Index is significant as July and August were among the four lowest recorded since July 2020. Additionally, of the past 12 months, 11 have seen contractions in employment.
According to ISM Chair Timothy Fiore, “Respondents’ companies are continuing to reduce head counts through layoffs, attrition and hiring freezes. This sentiment as supported in September by the approximately 1-to-1.5 ratio of hiring versus staff reduction comments.”
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only two reported employment growth in September: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Machinery.
Construction Jobs Report
Construction employment has increased every month in 2024 — with employers adding 25,000 payrolls in September and year-over-year growth of 3% (i.e., 238,000 jobs).
In contrast to an overall labor market that has downshifted over several months, the construction industry has remained solid with steady job gains, despite persistent labor shortages.
However, joblessness in the industry increased from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. This continues a trend of fluctuating unemployment throughout the year — from a high of 7% in February to a low of 3.2% in August.
According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), nonresidential construction employment added 17,900 jobs in September, including:
- Nonresidential specialty trade: 17,000 jobs
- Heavy and civil engineering: 3,800 jobs
- Nonresidential building: -2,900 jobs
ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu projects that “hiring should persist in the coming months, with contractors expecting to increase their staffing levels over the next six months.”
Warehousing & Storage Jobs Report
September Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI): 58.6*
*A LMI above 50 indicates that logistics metrics are expanding.
Growth in the warehousing and storage industry remains consistent — with steady expansion continuing in September.
The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) reported growth (registering 58.6) for the tenth consecutive month and an increase from August’s reading of 55.4.
However, the industry shed 11,000 jobs month over month and 21,700 jobs year over year. This is the second month of decline after four consecutive months of increased employment.
Regardless, forecasts of continued growth over the next 12 months remain positive. According to LMI, survey “respondents grew increasingly optimistic in September, predicting expansion in the overall index at a rate of 65.4, which would be slightly above the all-time average of 61.8.”
Additionally, any worsening port strike impacts to the supply chain have been averted as negotiators reached an agreement on employee wages.
According to LMI:
Growth is increasing at an increasing rate for:
- Inventory Levels
- Inventory Costs
- Warehousing Utilization
- Warehousing Prices
- Transportation Utilization
Growth is increasing at a decreasing rate for:
- Warehousing Capacity
- Transportation Prices