November 2024 Market Trends Report
After a reassuring September jobs report, hiring reached a sharp slowdown in October, with only 12,000 jobs added, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Employment Situation Summary.
Job losses and sideways movement rippled across a variety of industries, from manufacturing, warehousing and automotive to the white-collar sector, including marketing, media and software development jobs.
October’s scant jobs report deeply undercut economists’ expectations for 100,000 new jobs. It’s also the weakest month of job gains since December 2020 (when 243,000 jobs were lost during the COVID-19 recession).
However, some economists believe downstream impacts from the hurricanes, labor strikes and data collection issues skewed October’s numbers.
“Make no mistake, the U.S. labor market is still relatively solid, and employer demand in many large sectors is still elevated. However, there are diverging corners of the labor market where it has become more difficult to find new jobs quickly,” Corey Stahle from Indeed Hiring Lab wrote in a commentary issued Friday.
We’ll have to wait for the coming months to see if the October BLS report begins an unsettling trend within a wider market slowdown or if it’s a point-in-time glitch caused by several one-off disruptions.
Jobs Market Overview: October 2024
4.1%
Overall unemployment rate
Unemployment remained at 4.1%. However, joblessness slightly increased (from 4.05% in September to 4.14% in October).
12k
Jobs added
On top of October’s weak job gains, August and September were revised down by 112,000 positions.
62.6%
Labor force participation rate
Labor force participation (LFP) decreased from September’s rate of 62.7%. LFP has ranged from 62.4% to 62.8% since September 2023.
Industry Employment Trends
OVERALL ECONOMY
+12k
Monthly job change
(-2.2% YOY Difference)
| Industry | Monthly Job Change | YoY Difference |
| Manufacturing | -46k | -0 |
| Automotive | -6k | +0 |
| Warehousing & Storage | -7k | -0 |
| Architectural & Engineering | +3.5k | +0 |
| Construction | +8k | +0.2% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic News Release
Sector by Sector News: October 2024
Manufacturing Jobs Report
October Manufacturing PMI: 46.5%*
*A PMI reading below 50% suggests economic activity is contracting.
Manufacturing Monthly Employment Change: -46,000 jobs
Jobs in manufacturing have remained close to 12.9 million since July 2022, according to FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data. October continues this sideways movement — with 12.87 million jobs in comparison to 12.92 million in September.
(For context, the 24-year employment high was reached in July 2000 [with 17.3 million jobs] before it began a sharp downward trend in 2001.)
Although the FRED report shows a plateau since the summer of 2022, October continues a five-month trend of employment decline (losing 46,000 jobs) after an increase in May, which proceeded seven months of contraction.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, Wood Products and Paper Products are the only sectors that increased the number of jobs in October.
Overall, manufacturing activity continues to contract with headcount reductions, weak demand and mixed output results. In October, the Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.5% (by 0.7% compared to September), continuing a four-month trend of projected economic contraction (i.e., a PMI below 50%).
Construction Jobs Report
Construction Monthly Employment Change: +8,000 jobs
Construction employment has increased steadily throughout the year, with 2.8% growth year over year (i.e., 223,000 jobs).
In contrast to an overall labor market that has downshifted over several months in 2024, the construction industry has remained solid with steady job gains, including 8,000 jobs added in October.
Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu reported in an ABC news release:
Over the past year, the construction sector has added jobs at exactly twice the rate of the broader economy, and growth has been even faster in the nonresidential sector. With contractors on net expecting their staffing levels to increase over the next two quarters … it appears likely that industry payrolls will continue to expand through at least the early months of 2025.
According to ABC, nonresidential construction employment added 13,500 jobs in October, including:
- Nonresidential specialty trade: 14,300 jobs
- Heavy and civil engineering: -1,100 jobs
- Nonresidential building: 300 jobs
Warehousing & Storage Jobs Report
October Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI): 58.9*
*A LMI above 50 indicates that logistics metrics are expanding.
Employment in warehousing and storage decreased again in October with a loss of 7,000 jobs and employment at 1.76 million.
Since the beginning of 2023, the warehousing and storage industry has lost 93,900 jobs.
However, October's Logistics Manager's Index Report marks the eleventh consecutive month of projected economic growth in the industry with an LMI reading of 58.9, which is up 0.3 from September. This consistent growth reflects positive consumer sentiment alongside broader economic recovery.
According to LMI:
Growth is increasing at an increasing rate for:
- Warehousing utilization
- Transportation capacity
- Transportation utilization
- Transportation prices
Growth is increasing at a decreasing rate for:
- Inventory levels
- Inventory costs
- Warehousing capacity
- Warehousing prices