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February 2025 Market Trends Report

The job market kicked off 2025 with stable yet less-than-expected job gains in January.

Employers added 143,000 jobs — short of the 170,000 economists expected — according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Employment Situation Summary.

The BLS also released its annual revisions to last year’s totals, removing 589,000 jobs from the 2024 reports. The adjustment shows a slower pace of growth, amounting to roughly 166,000 jobs added per month.

Although January fell short of economists’ forecasts, it reached a historic employment milestone, marking the 49th month of expansion. It was the second-longest trend of employment growth on record (preceded by the 113-month streak from October 2010 to February 2020). 

While hiring and quitting activity is slowing, the unemployment rate is equally notable, dropping 0.1 percentage points to 4% and adding further stability to the foundation of the 2025 labor market.

Jobs Market Overview: January 2025

4%

Overall unemployment rate

Unemployment decreased from 4.1% last month.

143k

Jobs added

Last month’s job gains fell short of economists’ expectations yet indicate a resilient 2025 job market.

62.6%

Labor force participation rate

Labor force participation increased slightly month over month, remaining within its narrow range of 62.5%–62.7% since December 2023.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Summary 

Industry Employment Trends

OVERALL ECONOMY

+143k

 

Monthly job change

(+2,020,000 year over year)

Industry Monthly Job Change YoY Difference
Manufacturing +3k -105k
Automotive -9.7k -28.6k
Warehousing & Storage -4.6k +2.8k
Architectural & Engineering +7.1k +52.7k
Construction +4k +178k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic News Release

Sector by Sector News: January 2025

Warehousing & Storage Report

January Logistics Managers' Index (LMI): 62*

*An LMI reading above 50 suggests logistics metrics are expanding.

Warehousing & Storage Monthly Employment Change: -4,600 jobs

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the logistics industry continued its steady growth in January, up 4.7 index points from December, which is the fastest growth in the index since June 2022.

Warehousing employers are navigating the uncertainties of tariffs and a recent drop in consumer sentiment (for the first time in six months), yet growth has been consistent.

To hedge against the potential impact of tariffs, warehouses increased inventory levels, leading to a drop in warehousing capacity and a reciprocal surge in inventory and warehousing prices.

The market looks resilient, yet the warehousing and storage industry shed 4,600 jobs, and the overall transportation and warehousing industry added 1,100 jobs.  

At the same time, respondents to ISM’s survey were optimistic in January, predicting continued expansion in 2025.

According to LMI:

Growth is increasing at an increasing rate for:

  • Inventory levels
  • Inventory costs
  • Warehousing utilization
  • Warehousing prices
  • Transportation utilization
  • Transportation prices

Growth is increasing at a decreasing rate for:

  • Warehousing capacity
  • Transportation capacity

Construction Jobs Report

Construction Monthly Employment Change: +4,000 jobs

In Q4 2024, the pace of job growth in the construction industry significantly slowed, a trend that has continued into 2025.

Construction employers added only 4,000 jobs in January, and unemployment sharply spiked to 6.5% (from 5.2% in December and its annual low of 3.2% in August 2024).

“Construction hiring has slowed to a crawl since October, with the industry averaging just 6,000 net new jobs per month,” Chief Economist of Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Anirban Basu said in their report of January trends.

“This is largely a reflection of weakness in the residential sector, which actually lost 200 jobs in January. Given the ongoing effects of high interest rates and the sharp decline in the number of housing units under construction, residential employment should continue to pull back over the next few quarters.”

Despite slowing job growth and an unemployment rate that’s steadily edging up, ABC’s Construction Confidence Index projects that contractors are still expecting to expand their staffing levels in the first quarters of 2025.

Nonresidential specialty trade and nonresidential building saw employment increases, adding 5,600 and 1,100 jobs respectively, while heavy and civil engineering lost 2,300 jobs in January. It will be interesting to see if those hiring rates step up later this quarter to meet contractors’ alleged hiring goals.

Manufacturing Jobs Report

January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI): 50.9%*

*A PMI reading above 50% suggests economic activity is expanded.

Manufacturing Monthly Employment Change: +3,000  jobs

After 26 months of contraction, economic activity in manufacturing finally expanded, with demand and factory output both improving, according to Institute for Supply Management.

While staff reductions continue across the industry, employers added 3,000 jobs overall. However, employment is significantly down (-105,000) year over year.

Manufacturing industries that reported growth in January (listed in order) include:

  • Textile mills
  • Primary metals
  • Petroleum and coal products
  • Chemical products
  • Machinery
  • Transportation equipment
  • Plastics and rubber products
  • Electrical equipment
  • Appliances and components

Manufacturing industries that reported contraction include:

  • Nonmetallic mineral products
  • Miscellaneous manufacturing
  • Wood products
  • Fabricated metal products
  • Furniture and related products
  • Computer and electronic products
  • Paper products
  • Food, beverage and tobacco productions

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